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Species · Louisiana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Louisiana Waterthrush Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesForest birds

Louisiana Waterthrush in Louisiana has declined: down 35% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-35%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Louisiana Waterthrush Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Louisiana Waterthrush in Louisiana. See the full index history below.

Louisiana Waterthrush Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Louisiana Waterthrush in Louisiana is projected to fall about 64% by 2030 — from 0.18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-64%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±68.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Louisiana Waterthrush in Louisiana is projected to fall about 64% by 2030 — from 0.18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.070.000.20
20270.070.000.20
20280.070.000.20
20290.070.000.20
20300.060.000.19

Louisiana Waterthrush Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Louisiana Waterthrush in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fort Polk219731973
Cheniere220251989
Haughton120131998
Tensas Nwr119871987
Fort Jessup120132013
Bickham120161996
Linville120112011
Plettenberg120171986
Ivan120132013
Shaw120122012
Derry119821969
Fishville120061974
Cypress119811977
Chatham119751968
Clay120231970
Longstreet120011967
Greensburg120042004
Trout120252021
Floyd120112011
Goodwill120252015
Grayson120212019
Evelyn120222009
Enterprise120232014
Norwood120252016
De Quincy120022000

Louisiana Waterthrush Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.