BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prothonotary Warbler Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

Prothonotary Warbler in Missouri has increased: up 28% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+28%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prothonotary Warbler Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Prothonotary Warbler in Missouri. See the full index history below.

Prothonotary Warbler Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Missouri is projected to rise about 158% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+158%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±72.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Missouri is projected to rise about 158% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.160.000.34
20260.160.000.34
20270.160.000.34
20280.150.000.34
20290.150.000.34

Prothonotary Warbler Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Prothonotary Warbler in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Deventer720231967
Pineville220181985
Cp Girardeau220212004
Cascade220091968
Filley220221977
Lincoln220132013
Stet219951977
Centerville220041994
Palace220232018
Pulaski120082000
Clementine119961979
Handley120181995
Graydon120162016
Reeds119961978
Syracuse120241995
Centertown120221978
Ohio120221972
Sni Mills119771977
Gerald120172015
Madison120061997
Huntsville120101999
Rockingham120171976
Mincy120242014
Kahoka119831983
Crane120241994

Prothonotary Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.