BirdAnalyst
Species · Louisiana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Prothonotary Warbler Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesForest birds

Prothonotary Warbler in Louisiana has surged: up 223% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+223%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
81Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prothonotary Warbler Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Prothonotary Warbler has surged in Louisiana: up 223% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Prothonotary Warbler Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Louisiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 7.6 (95% range 3.8–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.8–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Louisiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 7.6 (95% range 3.8–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.33.511
20277.43.611
20287.53.711
20297.63.811
20307.63.811

Prothonotary Warbler Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Prothonotary Warbler in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ramah6120251988
Atchafalaya5720251989
Kraemer5120251997
Frogmore3220251998
Berwick3120181987
Tensas Nwr3020251987
Shaw2020241967
Junior1819911987
Freetown920191967
Morgan City819861967
Enterprise820252008
Carlisle719881968
Natchez720251992
Mayflower620251969
Lafitte419911967
Plettenberg420221968
Glencoe420171988
Ltl Chenier420082008
Rayville 2420242009
Evelyn420242009
River Road420251987
Forked Island 2420112010
Lacombe319731968
Bickham320251984
Easton319901967

Prothonotary Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.