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Species · Louisiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prothonotary Warbler Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesForest birds

Prothonotary Warbler in Louisiana has surged: up 194% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+194%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
81Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prothonotary Warbler Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Prothonotary Warbler has surged in Louisiana: up 194% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Prothonotary Warbler Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Louisiana is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 6.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.6 (95% range 3.7–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.7–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Louisiana is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 6.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.6 (95% range 3.7–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.33.411
20267.33.511
20277.43.611
20287.53.711
20297.63.711

Prothonotary Warbler Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Prothonotary Warbler in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Atchafalaya5220241989
Kraemer4520241997
Ramah4120241988
Berwick3120181987
Tensas Nwr2220241987
Shaw2020241967
Junior1819911987
Frogmore1820241998
Freetown920191967
Morgan City819861967
Mayflower820241969
Carlisle719881968
Enterprise620242008
Lafitte419911967
Plettenberg420221968
Glencoe420171988
Belair420241991
Ltl Chenier420082008
Rayville 2420242009
Natchez420241992
Evelyn420242009
Forked Island 2420112010
Lacombe319731968
Easton319901967
Cypress319871967

Prothonotary Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.