BirdAnalyst
Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prothonotary Warbler Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesForest birds

Prothonotary Warbler in Oklahoma has fallen sharply: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-52%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prothonotary Warbler Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Prothonotary Warbler has fallen sharply in Oklahoma: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Prothonotary Warbler Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 10% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±150.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±150.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Oklahoma is projected to rise about 10% by 2029 — from 0.07 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±150.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.070.000.16
20260.070.000.16
20270.080.000.16
20280.080.000.16
20290.080.000.16

Prothonotary Warbler Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Prothonotary Warbler in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sandbluff319951992
Mcalester219901970
Pocola220081997
Big Cedar120081978
Blanco119931970
Mill Creek120172003
Baron120191980
Canadian120072007
Indianola120161990
Holdenville120241970
Beggs119911991
Noble119791979
Peoria120131967
Welch119911991
Collinsville120171977
Barnsdall119721967
Bartlesville120091968
Goodwater120211992
Bethel120071994
Matoy120001993
Heyburn120242003
Sickles120082008
Colcord119961996
Keetonville120141992
Jet119921992

Prothonotary Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.