BirdAnalyst
Species · Indiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prothonotary Warbler Population Trend in Indiana

All statesForest birds

Prothonotary Warbler in Indiana has increased: up 33% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

+33%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prothonotary Warbler Trends in IndianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Prothonotary Warbler in Indiana. See the full index history below.

Prothonotary Warbler Population Forecast in Indiana

If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Indiana is projected to rise about 129% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.08–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+129%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.21Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.08–0.3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Indiana is projected to rise about 129% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.08–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.200.070.33
20260.200.070.33
20270.200.070.33
20280.210.080.34
20290.210.080.34

Prothonotary Warbler Survey Routes in Indiana

Routes recording Prothonotary Warbler in Indiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pimento320231986
Millersburg320191981
Indian Spgs320241982
Clear Spring220221982
Evansville220141968
Lagrange220192000
Hebron120022002
Knox120192019
Indiana Dune120142014
Middlebury120181993
W Lafayette120182017
Galveston119961996
Muncie119811981
Wabash120232004
Brazil120022002
Friendswood120242022
Spencer119941988
Azalia120192019
Brookville120182018
Washington120242016
Cumback120191968
Wallace120182018
Newberry120192003
Cyprss120092004

Prothonotary Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.