BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prothonotary Warbler Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Prothonotary Warbler in North Carolina has surged: up 308% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+308%Since 1968
69Routes In State
58Years

Notable Prothonotary Warbler Trends in North Carolina

long arc increasecomputed index

Prothonotary Warbler has surged in North Carolina: up 307% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Prothonotary Warbler Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in North Carolina is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 3.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 2.5–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+26%Change by 2029
4.7Projected 2029 index
2.5–6.895% range
±67.8%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20254.52.36.6
20264.52.46.7
20274.62.46.7
20284.62.56.8
20294.72.56.8

Prothonotary Warbler Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Prothonotary Warbler in North Carolina.
Milltail Cr8420241992
Dismal Swamp2820241993
Mashoes2719821971
Broad Creek2320241993
Sheep Ridge1320241994
Shallotte1219911971
Supply1220241992
Maple Hill1120231995
Dortches1020241990
Old Trap820242010
Montague820241990
Wards Corner720241966
Beargrass719811966
Speed720241966
Green Swamp720062002
Belgrade720192002
Merrimon620231971
Chowan River620052002
Congleton620242001
Newport620231995
California 2620242014
Kinston520241979
California520131972
Roseboro520241998
Spring Hope420242002

Prothonotary Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorkohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.