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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prothonotary Warbler Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Prothonotary Warbler in North Carolina has surged: up 308% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+308%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prothonotary Warbler Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Prothonotary Warbler has surged in North Carolina: up 307% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Prothonotary Warbler Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in North Carolina is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 3.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 2.5–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.5–6.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±67.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in North Carolina is projected to rise about 26% by 2029 — from 3.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 2.5–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.52.36.6
20264.52.46.7
20274.62.46.7
20284.62.56.8
20294.72.56.8

Prothonotary Warbler Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Prothonotary Warbler in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Milltail Cr8420241992
Dismal Swamp2820241993
Mashoes2719821971
Broad Creek2320241993
Sheep Ridge1320241994
Shallotte1219911971
Supply1220241992
Maple Hill1120231995
Dortches1020241990
Old Trap820242010
Montague820241990
Wards Corner720241966
Beargrass719811966
Speed720241966
Green Swamp720062002
Belgrade720192002
Merrimon620231971
Chowan River620052002
Congleton620242001
Newport620231995
California 2620242014
Kinston520241979
California520131972
Roseboro520241998
Spring Hope420242002

Prothonotary Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorkohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.