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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Prothonotary Warbler Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Prothonotary Warbler in North Carolina has surged: up 325% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+325%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
70Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prothonotary Warbler Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Prothonotary Warbler has surged in North Carolina: up 325% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Prothonotary Warbler Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in North Carolina is projected to rise about 50% by 2030 — from 3.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.6 (95% range 2.4–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+50%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.4–6.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±67.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in North Carolina is projected to rise about 50% by 2030 — from 3.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.6 (95% range 2.4–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.42.36.6
20274.52.36.6
20284.52.46.7
20294.62.46.7
20304.62.46.8

Prothonotary Warbler Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Prothonotary Warbler in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Milltail Cr6720251992
Dismal Swamp2820241993
Mashoes2719821971
Sheep Ridge2220251994
Broad Creek2020251993
Supply1520251992
Shallotte1219911971
Maple Hill1120231995
Montague1120251990
Dortches1020251990
Old Trap820242010
Wards Corner720241966
Beargrass719811966
Green Swamp720062002
Belgrade720192002
Roseboro720251998
Merrimon620231971
Speed620251966
Chowan River620052002
Newport620231995
California 2620252014
Kinston520241979
California520131972
Congleton420252001
Ernul420092001

Prothonotary Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorkohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.