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Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prothonotary Warbler Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

Prothonotary Warbler in Arkansas has held roughly steady: down 3% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-3%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prothonotary Warbler Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Prothonotary Warbler in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

Prothonotary Warbler Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Arkansas is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.15–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.15–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Arkansas is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.15–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.00.171.9
20261.00.171.9
20271.00.161.9
20281.00.161.9
20291.00.151.9

Prothonotary Warbler Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Prothonotary Warbler in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
South Bend2720231967
Crowley'S Ridge1320242011
Hughes1120231967
Gillett720242010
Poyen520061967
England520242010
Kelso520162010
Augusta420011967
Poyen 2420242009
Crows319881967
Springhill320212010
Hope220241967
West Tyler219831972
Harrisburg220052005
Maynard220241971
Centerton220222022
Ulm220241986
Old Milo120241967
Eudora120161968
Ramsey119971967
Locust Bayou120231969
Stamps120011967
Ashdown120231967
Hollywood120231970
Blakely119931968

Prothonotary Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamadelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.