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Species · Florida · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Prothonotary Warbler Population Trend in Florida

All statesForest birds

Prothonotary Warbler in Florida has held roughly steady: down 10% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-10%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prothonotary Warbler Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Prothonotary Warbler in Florida. See the full index history below.

Prothonotary Warbler Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Florida is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 0.70 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.48 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.48Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Florida is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 0.70 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.48 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.580.001.5
20270.550.001.5
20280.530.001.5
20290.500.001.4
20300.480.001.4

Prothonotary Warbler Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Prothonotary Warbler in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Miller Xrds1220191987
Ft Gadsden1020251969
Apalachicola720251987
Port St Joe620101968
Alligator Pt620251987
Telogia519851968
Nixon519861985
Broad Branch420251967
Lovedale320111989
St Vincent I320252005
Pennywash Cr319981998
Seminole Hills 2320222002
New Hope320112009
Blountstown220251966
Miccosukee220251966
Bloxham220211987
Deanville219921987
Oak Grove 2220252017
Island Grove220231995
Oak Grove120161967
Ft Waltn Bch119871977
Mossy Head120071968
Seminole Hls120001967
Covington120211966
Steinhatchee119871969

Prothonotary Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.