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Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prothonotary Warbler Population Trend in Florida

All statesForest birds

Prothonotary Warbler in Florida has edged down: down 18% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-18%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prothonotary Warbler Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Prothonotary Warbler in Florida. See the full index history below.

Prothonotary Warbler Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Florida is projected to fall about 40% by 2029 — from 0.82 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.49 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-40%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.49Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Florida is projected to fall about 40% by 2029 — from 0.82 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.49 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.590.001.5
20260.570.001.5
20270.540.001.5
20280.520.001.5
20290.490.001.4

Prothonotary Warbler Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Prothonotary Warbler in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Broad Branch1320241967
Apalachicola1220241987
Miller Xrds1220191987
Alligator Pt1220241987
Port St Joe620101968
Telogia519851968
Nixon519861985
Ft Gadsden420241969
Lovedale320111989
Pennywash Cr319981998
Seminole Hills 2320222002
New Hope320112009
Blountstown220241966
St Vincent I220242005
Bloxham220211987
Deanville219921987
Island Grove220231995
Oak Grove120161967
Ft Waltn Bch119871977
Mossy Head120071968
Miccosukee120221966
Seminole Hls120001967
Covington120211966
Steinhatchee119871969
Belmont120021967

Prothonotary Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.