BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prothonotary Warbler Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Prothonotary Warbler in Texas has held roughly steady: down 6% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-6%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prothonotary Warbler Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Prothonotary Warbler in Texas. See the full index history below.

Prothonotary Warbler Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.09 (95% range 0.01–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±83.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.09 (95% range 0.01–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.090.010.17
20260.090.010.17
20270.090.010.17
20280.090.010.17
20290.090.010.17

Prothonotary Warbler Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Prothonotary Warbler in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Smyrna 2420232011
Bon Wier420241997
Dike320242001
Easton 2220242014
Fred220241995
Liberty Hill219871968
Mt. Selman220011998
Gambill Ref.220231995
Carlos220041993
Neches Bith120172017
Blue Ridge120072007
Cayuga120232023
Danbury119771977
Moon Lake 2120122012
Chandler 2120162010
Town Bluff120231967
Livingston119781978
New Waverly119981970
Oak Grove119881978
Diboll120241968
Caledonia120241970
Massey Lake120241979
Oakwood119741974
Port Acres120082008
Morton120101972

Prothonotary Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseevirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.