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Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Prothonotary Warbler Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Prothonotary Warbler in Texas has edged up: up 21% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+21%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prothonotary Warbler Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Prothonotary Warbler in Texas. See the full index history below.

Prothonotary Warbler Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Texas is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.02–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Texas is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.02–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.090.020.17
20270.090.020.17
20280.090.020.17
20290.090.020.17
20300.090.020.17

Prothonotary Warbler Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Prothonotary Warbler in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lydia420251969
Town Bluff320251967
Liberty Hill219871968
Mt. Selman220011998
Gambill Ref.220231995
Carlos220041993
Neches Bith120172017
Blue Ridge120072007
Cayuga120232023
Danbury119771977
Moon Lake 2120122012
Chandler 2120162010
Livingston119781978
New Waverly119981970
Oak Grove119881978
Diboll120251968
Caledonia120251970
Massey Lake120241979
Oakwood119741974
Port Acres120082008
Morton120101972
Crossroads120102010
Yoakum120041995
Chandler119961968
Ola120102010

Prothonotary Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseevirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.