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Species · Kansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Prothonotary Warbler Population Trend in Kansas

All statesForest birds

Prothonotary Warbler in Kansas has surged: up 288% on the route-weighted index since 1997.

+288%Since 1997TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
25YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prothonotary Warbler Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Prothonotary Warbler in Kansas. See the full index history below.

Prothonotary Warbler Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Kansas is projected to rise about 54% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.05–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+54%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–0.1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Kansas is projected to rise about 54% by 2030 — from 0.07 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.11 (95% range 0.05–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19892030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.100.040.16
20270.100.050.16
20280.100.050.16
20290.110.050.16
20300.110.050.17

Prothonotary Warbler Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Prothonotary Warbler in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dalton220192014
Melrose120172017
Humboldt120051989
Lapland120192019
Olathe120082004
Pittsburg120082004
Barclay120142014
Wreford119921992
Morehead120252021
Trading Post120252000
Le Loup120212011
Grantville120112011
Rock Creek119971997
Seneca120082008

Prothonotary Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.