BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prothonotary Warbler Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesForest birds

Prothonotary Warbler in Kentucky has risen sharply: up 51% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+51%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prothonotary Warbler Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Prothonotary Warbler has risen sharply in Kentucky: up 51% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Prothonotary Warbler Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.38 (95% range 0.01–0.73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.38Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.7395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±68.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Kentucky is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.38 (95% range 0.01–0.73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.380.010.74
20260.380.010.74
20270.380.010.74
20280.380.010.74
20290.380.010.73

Prothonotary Warbler Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Prothonotary Warbler in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Joy520231968
Apex420242010
Canton320231977
Riverqueen320232022
Morganfield320242022
Lovelacevile220221968
Shiloh220231967
Keysburg220181968
Iron Bridge219821966
Eastview220241973
Drakesboro219931975
Boxville219761966
Bardwell 2220242006
Cumberlnd Gp120102010
Sulphur Lick120212015
Dixon120192019
Sunnybrook120162016
Bardwell120021967
Million119681967
Hustonville120151984
Mcbrayer119671967
Hodgenville119791979
Demunbruns120181967
Gatewood120001966
Goshen119821971

Prothonotary Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.