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Species · Alabama · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Prothonotary Warbler Population Trend in Alabama

All statesForest birds

Prothonotary Warbler in Alabama has declined: down 48% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-48%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prothonotary Warbler Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Prothonotary Warbler in Alabama. See the full index history below.

Prothonotary Warbler Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Alabama is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 0.86 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.74 (95% range 0.04–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.74Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Alabama is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 0.86 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.74 (95% range 0.04–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.790.091.5
20270.780.071.5
20280.760.061.5
20290.750.051.5
20300.740.041.4

Prothonotary Warbler Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Prothonotary Warbler in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gainestown Ferry4720152000
Riverside2120131999
Sprott-Cahaba Riv1820141999
Epes1420241980
Chacaloochee Bay1220192009
Jena720251981
Calebee620251993
Valhermoso Spg 2620142014
Valhermoso Spgs520101966
Wedgeworth520251984
Stevenson520241996
Triana520121999
Lanett419781966
Elamville420251984
Mt. Gilead420221993
Harrell320251968
Foley319841966
Grove Hill319911988
Carrollton320251994
Citronelle320231998
Hillsboro219931977
Sunny Eve220251969
Liberty220211967
Greensboro220251966
Wallsboro220111966

Prothonotary Warbler Population Trend in Other States

arkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.