BirdAnalyst
Species · Alabama · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prothonotary Warbler Population Trend in Alabama

All statesForest birds

Prothonotary Warbler in Alabama has fallen sharply: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-56%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prothonotary Warbler Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Prothonotary Warbler has fallen sharply in Alabama: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Prothonotary Warbler Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Alabama is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 0.90 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.75 (95% range 0.04–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.75Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±59.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Alabama is projected to fall about 16% by 2029 — from 0.90 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.75 (95% range 0.04–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.800.091.5
20260.790.081.5
20270.770.071.5
20280.760.061.5
20290.750.041.5

Prothonotary Warbler Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Prothonotary Warbler in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gainestown Ferry4720152000
Riverside2120131999
Sprott-Cahaba Riv1820141999
Epes1420241980
Chacaloochee Bay1220192009
Calebee620241993
Valhermoso Spg 2620142014
Valhermoso Spgs520101966
Wheeler Dam520231993
Stevenson520241996
Triana520121999
Lanett419781966
Wedgeworth420241984
Mt. Gilead420221993
Bay Minette420241996
Foley319841966
Jena320241981
Grove Hill319911988
Citronelle320231998
Hillsboro219931977
Liberty220211967
Greensboro220241966
Wallsboro220111966
Newton219771967
Brantley220231966

Prothonotary Warbler Population Trend in Other States

arkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.