BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Prothonotary Warbler Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Prothonotary Warbler in Virginia has increased: up 33% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+33%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prothonotary Warbler Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Prothonotary Warbler in Virginia. See the full index history below.

Prothonotary Warbler Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Virginia is projected to rise about 232% by 2030 — from 0.54 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.10–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±317.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+232%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.10–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±317.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Virginia is projected to rise about 232% by 2030 — from 0.54 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.10–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±317.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.70.023.4
20271.70.043.4
20281.80.063.5
20291.80.083.5
20301.80.103.5

Prothonotary Warbler Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Prothonotary Warbler in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dismal Swamp10020161992
Newsoms1020241969
Pungo1020251975
Surry620251977
Brodnax520251992
Brandon420251992
Branchville420241966
Backbay419741966
Tryme220062005
Colonial Pky219971992
Chincoteag W220151992
Sharps220221967
Saltville219961969
Cornland220141975
Finchley220172017
Port Royal120181977
Gloucester120191992
Covington119791979
Walkers120231992
Truhart120241996
Covesville120071967
Shipman119691969
Mannboro120181968
Hall120232023
Waverly119871978

Prothonotary Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexaswest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.