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Species · South Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prothonotary Warbler Population Trend in South Carolina

All statesForest birds

Prothonotary Warbler in South Carolina has declined: down 39% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-39%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prothonotary Warbler Trends in South CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Prothonotary Warbler in South Carolina. See the full index history below.

Prothonotary Warbler Population Forecast in South Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in South Carolina is projected to fall about 33% by 2029 — from 0.57 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.38 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-33%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.38Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in South Carolina is projected to fall about 33% by 2029 — from 0.57 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.38 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.470.001.5
20260.450.001.5
20270.420.001.5
20280.400.001.5
20290.380.001.4

Prothonotary Warbler Survey Routes in South Carolina

Routes recording Prothonotary Warbler in South Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Nixonville419951987
Bennettsville420171999
Carvers Bay420011998
Holly Hill320241972
Green Sea320242010
New Holland220241967
Dillon220211970
Sandhills220112003
Mount Pisgah220211998
Pinewood220091998
Jamestown120171967
Hardeeville120191975
Rome120241967
Coward120241967
Foreston120191973
Wagener120231967
Bishopville120181974
Walterboro120171972
Little Mtn119811979
Salem Xrd120091984
Barton Creek120102000
Plum Branch119771977
New Ellenton120242024
Ward120212017
Whitmire120232021

Prothonotary Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.