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Species · South Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Prothonotary Warbler Population Trend in South Carolina

All statesForest birds

Prothonotary Warbler in South Carolina has declined: down 33% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-33%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prothonotary Warbler Trends in South CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Prothonotary Warbler in South Carolina. See the full index history below.

Prothonotary Warbler Population Forecast in South Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in South Carolina is projected to fall about 49% by 2030 — from 0.75 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.38 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-49%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.38Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in South Carolina is projected to fall about 49% by 2030 — from 0.75 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.38 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.470.001.5
20270.450.001.5
20280.420.001.5
20290.400.001.4
20300.380.001.4

Prothonotary Warbler Survey Routes in South Carolina

Routes recording Prothonotary Warbler in South Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Coward720251967
Nixonville419951987
Green Sea420252010
Bennettsville420171999
Carvers Bay420011998
Holly Hill220251972
Dillon220211970
Sandhills220112003
Greenwood220252001
Mount Pisgah220251998
Pinewood220091998
Red Bluff220251996
Jamestown120171967
Hardeeville120191975
Rome120241967
Foreston120191973
New Holland120251967
Wagener120231967
Bishopville120181974
Walterboro120171972
Little Mtn119811979
Salem Xrd120091984
Barton Creek120102000
Plum Branch119771977
New Ellenton120242024

Prothonotary Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.