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Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prothonotary Warbler Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesForest birds

Prothonotary Warbler in Tennessee has surged: up 121% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+121%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prothonotary Warbler Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Prothonotary Warbler has surged in Tennessee: up 121% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Prothonotary Warbler Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Tennessee is projected to fall about 43% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.70 (95% range 0.32–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-43%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.70Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.32–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Tennessee is projected to fall about 43% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.70 (95% range 0.32–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.680.301.1
20260.680.301.1
20270.690.311.1
20280.690.321.1
20290.700.321.1

Prothonotary Warbler Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Prothonotary Warbler in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mansfield920241973
Silerton720241966
Tiptonville420231966
Whiteville420241967
Sweetlips320232003
Humboldt320241966
Pawpaw 2320232013
Pawpaw220101966
Big Sandy220241972
Pond Creek219911985
Indian Mound219911977
Campbellsville220171973
Lewis Forest220231967
Belotes Bend220181967
Tullahoma220151967
Red Bank219771971
Signal Mtn120131979
Moscow120181974
Brownsville120241966
Tibbs120061966
Trenton120231967
Collinwood120241966
Wrigley120151966
Peytonsville119821978
Bradyville120111972

Prothonotary Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.