BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prothonotary Warbler

ParulidaeForest birdsProtonotaria citrea

Prothonotary Warbler has edged up: up 19% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+19%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
892RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Prothonotary Warbler

The Prothonotary Warbler (Protonotaria citrea) is a North American member of the Wood-Warblers (Parulidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
4.5–5.5 in long (11–14 cm) — a small, active songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 892 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 28 states, most concentrated in the Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Family
Parulidae · Forest birds

Notable Prothonotary Warbler TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Prothonotary Warbler. See the full index history below.

Prothonotary Warbler Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 0.40 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.45 (95% range 0.35–0.55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.45Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.35–0.5595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 0.40 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.45 (95% range 0.35–0.55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.440.340.54
20260.440.350.54
20270.450.350.54
20280.450.350.55
20290.450.350.55

Where the Prothonotary Warbler Is Detected

BBS routes recording Prothonotary Warbler, sized by most recent count.

Prothonotary Warbler Population Trend by State

Prothonotary Warbler population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabama-56%196888
Arkansas-3%196944
Delaware+297%196812
Florida-18%196855
Georgia-38%196880
Illinois+234%196836
Indiana+33%197624
Iowainsufficient datan/a2
Kansas+261%199714
Kentucky+51%196832
Louisiana+194%196981
Maryland+129%196836
Michigan-2%198211
Minnesotainsufficient datan/a3
Mississippi+308%196867
Missouri+28%196932
New Jersey+465%198613
New Yorkinsufficient datan/a4
North Carolina+308%196869
Ohioinsufficient datan/a11
Oklahoma-52%197026
Pennsylvania-25%19896
South Carolina-39%196936
Tennessee+121%196833
Texas-6%196937
Virginia+32%196834
West Virginia-63%19684
Wisconsininsufficient datan/a2

Prothonotary Warbler Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Prothonotary Warbler population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Oaks and Prairies+99%196920
Eastern Tallgrass Prairie+116%196864
Prairie Hardwood Transition+24%198121
Central Hardwoods+26%1968100
West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas-35%196988
Mississippi Alluvial Valley+147%196868
Southeastern Coastal Plain+56%1968313
Appalachian Mountains-57%196852
Piedmont+53%196865
New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast+150%196865
Peninsular Florida-50%196815
Gulf Coastal Prairie-87%196914

Prothonotary Warbler Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 19% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.