BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prothonotary Warbler In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainForest birds

Prothonotary Warbler in Southeastern Coastal Plain has risen sharply: up 56% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+56%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
313Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Prothonotary Warbler has risen sharply in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 56% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Prothonotary Warbler In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 10% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 1.9–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±65.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 10% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 1.9–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±65.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.91.94.0
20263.01.94.0
20273.01.94.0
20283.01.94.0
20293.01.94.0

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Prothonotary Warbler in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dismal SwampVIRGINIA1002016
Milltail CrNORTH-CAROLINA842024
Gainestown FerryALABAMA472015
Dismal SwampNORTH-CAROLINA282024
MashoesNORTH-CAROLINA271982
Broad CreekNORTH-CAROLINA232024
Sprott-Cahaba RivALABAMA182014
EpesALABAMA142024
Broad BranchFLORIDA132024
Sheep RidgeNORTH-CAROLINA132024
Chacaloochee BayALABAMA122019
Miller XrdsFLORIDA122019
Alligator PtFLORIDA122024
ApalachicolaFLORIDA122024
ShallotteNORTH-CAROLINA121991
SupplyNORTH-CAROLINA122024
Maple HillNORTH-CAROLINA112023
PungoVIRGINIA112024
DortchesNORTH-CAROLINA102024
NewsomsVIRGINIA102024
MansfieldTENNESSEE92024
CorinthMISSISSIPPI82024
MontagueNORTH-CAROLINA82024
Old TrapNORTH-CAROLINA82024
BentonMISSISSIPPI72024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.