BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prothonotary Warbler In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontForest birds

Prothonotary Warbler in Piedmont has risen sharply: up 53% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+53%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Prothonotary Warbler has risen sharply in Piedmont: up 53% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Prothonotary Warbler In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Piedmont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.12 (95% range 0.02–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Piedmont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.12 (95% range 0.02–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.120.020.21
20260.120.020.21
20270.120.020.21
20280.120.020.21
20290.120.020.21

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Prothonotary Warbler in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LanettALABAMA41978
BaldwinGEORGIA21970
BowdonGEORGIA22015
WashingtonGEORGIA22024
Sunny SideGEORGIA22015
EarltonMARYLAND22019
OakboroNORTH-CAROLINA22024
TrymeVIRGINIA22006
BrodnaxVIRGINIA22024
FinchleyVIRGINIA22017
MillervilleALABAMA11986
Liberty CityALABAMA11985
Nixburg 2ALABAMA12013
ForsythGEORGIA12006
CrestGEORGIA11976
LincolntonGEORGIA12003
MaxeysGEORGIA12017
HollonvilleGEORGIA11978
SiloamGEORGIA12009
GrovetownGEORGIA12002
HiramGEORGIA11984
StockbridgeGEORGIA11985
RutledgeGEORGIA11982
JulietteGEORGIA11976
MetasvilleGEORGIA11998

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.