BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Prothonotary Warbler In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontForest birds

Prothonotary Warbler in Piedmont has risen sharply: up 59% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+59%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Prothonotary Warbler has risen sharply in Piedmont: up 59% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Prothonotary Warbler In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Piedmont is projected to fall about 33% by 2030 — from 0.19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.03–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-33%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Piedmont is projected to fall about 33% by 2030 — from 0.19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.03–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.120.020.22
20270.120.020.22
20280.120.020.22
20290.120.030.22
20300.120.030.22

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Prothonotary Warbler in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BrodnaxVIRGINIA52025
LanettALABAMA41978
BaldwinGEORGIA21970
BowdonGEORGIA22015
Sunny SideGEORGIA22015
EarltonMARYLAND22019
BullockNORTH-CAROLINA22025
GreenwoodSOUTH-CAROLINA22025
TrymeVIRGINIA22006
FinchleyVIRGINIA22017
MillervilleALABAMA11986
Liberty CityALABAMA11985
Nixburg 2ALABAMA12013
ForsythGEORGIA12006
CrestGEORGIA11976
LincolntonGEORGIA12003
MaxeysGEORGIA12017
HollonvilleGEORGIA11978
SiloamGEORGIA12009
GrovetownGEORGIA12002
HiramGEORGIA11984
StockbridgeGEORGIA11985
RutledgeGEORGIA11982
JulietteGEORGIA11976
WashingtonGEORGIA12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.