BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Prothonotary Warbler In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieForest birds

Prothonotary Warbler in Gulf Coastal Prairie has collapsed: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-79%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Prothonotary Warbler has collapsed in Gulf Coastal Prairie: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Prothonotary Warbler In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 33% by 2030 — from 0.23 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±302.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-33%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.15Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±302.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 33% by 2030 — from 0.23 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±302.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.210.001.4
20270.190.001.3
20280.180.001.3
20290.170.001.3
20300.150.001.3

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Prothonotary Warbler in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
JuniorLOUISIANA181991
LafitteLOUISIANA41991
GlencoeLOUISIANA42017
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA42008
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA42011
EstherLOUISIANA32025
MamouLOUISIANA21975
MauriceLOUISIANA12023
RichardLOUISIANA12013
Forked IslandLOUISIANA12025
Vinton 2LOUISIANA12025
DanburyTEXAS11977
Port AcresTEXAS12008
Moon Lake 2TEXAS12012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.