BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prothonotary Warbler In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesForest birds

Prothonotary Warbler in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 99% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+99%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Prothonotary Warbler has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 99% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Prothonotary Warbler In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.04–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±99.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±99.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.04–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±99.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.120.040.20
20260.120.040.21
20270.120.040.21
20280.130.040.21
20290.130.040.21

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Prothonotary Warbler in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DikeTEXAS32024
CarlosTEXAS22004
Gambill Ref.TEXAS22023
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA12017
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA12024
BeggsOKLAHOMA11991
NobleOKLAHOMA11979
BarnsdallOKLAHOMA11972
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA12009
HeyburnOKLAHOMA12024
Oak GroveTEXAS11988
Massey LakeTEXAS12024
OakwoodTEXAS11974
OlaTEXAS12010
LydiaTEXAS12002
CayugaTEXAS12023
Blue RidgeTEXAS12007
YoakumTEXAS12004
Wills PointTEXAS12015
GreenvilleTEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.