BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Prothonotary Warbler In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesForest birds

Prothonotary Warbler in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 140% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+140%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Prothonotary Warbler has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 140% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Prothonotary Warbler In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.13 (95% range 0.04–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Oaks and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.13 (95% range 0.04–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.120.040.21
20270.120.040.21
20280.130.040.21
20290.130.040.21
20300.130.040.21

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Prothonotary Warbler in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LydiaTEXAS42025
CarlosTEXAS22004
Gambill Ref.TEXAS22023
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA12017
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA12024
BeggsOKLAHOMA11991
NobleOKLAHOMA11979
BarnsdallOKLAHOMA11972
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA12009
HeyburnOKLAHOMA12024
Oak GroveTEXAS11988
Massey LakeTEXAS12024
OakwoodTEXAS11974
OlaTEXAS12010
DikeTEXAS12025
CayugaTEXAS12023
Blue RidgeTEXAS12007
YoakumTEXAS12004
Wills PointTEXAS12015
GreenvilleTEXAS12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.