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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prothonotary Warbler In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasForest birds

Prothonotary Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has declined: down 35% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-35%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Prothonotary Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas. See the full index history below.

Prothonotary Warbler In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 72% by 2029 — from 0.80 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.00–0.67). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-72%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.22Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±67.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 72% by 2029 — from 0.80 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.00–0.67). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.280.000.72
20260.260.000.71
20270.250.000.70
20280.240.000.68
20290.220.000.67

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Prothonotary Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
EnterpriseLOUISIANA62024
PoyenARKANSAS52006
Poyen 2ARKANSAS42024
NatchezLOUISIANA42024
EvelynLOUISIANA42024
Bon WierTEXAS42024
Smyrna 2TEXAS42023
CrowsARKANSAS31988
SpringhillARKANSAS32021
EastonLOUISIANA31990
CypressLOUISIANA31987
LongstreetLOUISIANA31997
Mount UnionLOUISIANA32024
GoodwillLOUISIANA32024
SandbluffOKLAHOMA31995
HopeARKANSAS22024
FishvilleLOUISIANA22014
Mer RougeLOUISIANA22008
ChathamLOUISIANA21973
FillmoreLOUISIANA21988
CartervilleLOUISIANA21992
De QuincyLOUISIANA22014
Flat CreekLOUISIANA22024
NatchitochesLOUISIANA21991
Burr FerryLOUISIANA22021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.