BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Prothonotary Warbler In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsForest birds

Prothonotary Warbler in Central Hardwoods has held roughly steady: up 2% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+2%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
100Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Prothonotary Warbler in Central Hardwoods. See the full index history below.

Prothonotary Warbler In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 29% by 2030 — from 0.27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.17–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.34Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.17–0.5195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 29% by 2030 — from 0.27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.17–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.340.170.51
20270.340.170.51
20280.340.170.51
20290.340.170.51
20300.340.170.51

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Prothonotary Warbler in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Beaverdam LkILLINOIS72023
Valhermoso Spg 2ALABAMA62014
PulaskiILLINOIS62025
Valhermoso SpgsALABAMA52010
TrianaALABAMA52012
JoyKENTUCKY52023
ApexKENTUCKY42024
BirdsILLINOIS32024
KarnakILLINOIS32023
PimentoINDIANA32023
MillersburgINDIANA32019
CantonKENTUCKY32023
RiverqueenKENTUCKY32023
HillsboroALABAMA21993
Wheeler DamALABAMA22025
CentertonARKANSAS22022
Brnt PrairieILLINOIS22025
BelknapILLINOIS22025
YorkILLINOIS22025
RoyaltonILLINOIS22025
Indian SpgsINDIANA22025
Clear SpringINDIANA22022
EvansvilleINDIANA22014
Iron BridgeKENTUCKY21982
DrakesboroKENTUCKY21993

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.