BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prothonotary Warbler In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsForest birds

Prothonotary Warbler in Central Hardwoods has increased: up 26% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+26%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
100Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Prothonotary Warbler in Central Hardwoods. See the full index history below.

Prothonotary Warbler In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.35 (95% range 0.17–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.35Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.17–0.5295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.35 (95% range 0.17–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.340.170.52
20260.340.170.52
20270.340.170.52
20280.350.170.52
20290.350.170.52

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Prothonotary Warbler in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PulaskiILLINOIS92024
Beaverdam LkILLINOIS72023
Valhermoso Spg 2ALABAMA62014
Valhermoso SpgsALABAMA52010
Wheeler DamALABAMA52023
TrianaALABAMA52012
BelknapILLINOIS52024
JoyKENTUCKY52023
ApexKENTUCKY42024
BirdsILLINOIS32024
KarnakILLINOIS32023
PimentoINDIANA32023
MillersburgINDIANA32019
Indian SpgsINDIANA32024
CantonKENTUCKY32023
MorganfieldKENTUCKY32024
RiverqueenKENTUCKY32023
HillsboroALABAMA21993
CentertonARKANSAS22022
Clear SpringINDIANA22022
EvansvilleINDIANA22014
KeysburgKENTUCKY22018
Iron BridgeKENTUCKY21982
EastviewKENTUCKY22024
DrakesboroKENTUCKY21993

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.