BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prothonotary Warbler In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyForest birds

Prothonotary Warbler in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 147% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+147%Since 1968
68Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Prothonotary Warbler has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 147% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 32% by 2029 — from 8.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 7.7–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+32%Change by 2029
12Projected 2029 index
7.7–1695% range
±33.2%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
2025117.115
2026117.315
2027127.416
2028127.616
2029127.716

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Prothonotary Warbler in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
AtchafalayaLOUISIANA522024
KraemerLOUISIANA452024
RamahLOUISIANA412024
BerwickLOUISIANA312018
TallahatchieMISSISSIPPI292024
South BendARKANSAS272023
Tensas NwrLOUISIANA222024
Delta N.F.MISSISSIPPI222021
ShawLOUISIANA202024
FrogmoreLOUISIANA182024
DundeeMISSISSIPPI152022
Crowley'S RidgeARKANSAS132024
HughesARKANSAS112023
FreetownLOUISIANA92019
Morgan CityLOUISIANA81986
MayflowerLOUISIANA82024
GillettARKANSAS72024
CarlisleLOUISIANA71988
Eagle LakeMISSISSIPPI72024
DeventerMISSOURI72023
TippoMISSISSIPPI62024
EnglandARKANSAS52024
KelsoARKANSAS52016
Dahomey NwrMISSISSIPPI52024
AugustaARKANSAS42001

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.