BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Prothonotary Warbler In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyForest birds

Prothonotary Warbler in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 162% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+162%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Prothonotary Warbler has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 162% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Prothonotary Warbler In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 19% by 2030 — from 9.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 7.8–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.8–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 19% by 2030 — from 9.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 7.8–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026117.215
2027117.316
2028127.516
2029127.616
2030127.816

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Prothonotary Warbler in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RamahLOUISIANA612025
AtchafalayaLOUISIANA572025
KraemerLOUISIANA512025
FrogmoreLOUISIANA322025
BerwickLOUISIANA312018
Tensas NwrLOUISIANA302025
TallahatchieMISSISSIPPI252025
South BendARKANSAS222025
Delta N.F.MISSISSIPPI222021
ShawLOUISIANA202024
DundeeMISSISSIPPI152022
Eagle LakeMISSISSIPPI122025
Crowley'S RidgeARKANSAS102025
FreetownLOUISIANA92019
TippoMISSISSIPPI92025
Morgan CityLOUISIANA81986
TiptonvilleTENNESSEE82025
HughesARKANSAS72025
CarlisleLOUISIANA71988
Dahomey NwrMISSISSIPPI72025
DeventerMISSOURI72023
MayflowerLOUISIANA62025
KelsoARKANSAS52016
AugustaARKANSAS42001
EnglandARKANSAS42025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.