BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prothonotary Warbler In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyForest birds

Prothonotary Warbler in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 147% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+147%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Prothonotary Warbler has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 147% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Prothonotary Warbler In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 32% by 2029 — from 8.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 7.7–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+32%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.7–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 32% by 2029 — from 8.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 7.7–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025117.115
2026117.315
2027127.416
2028127.616
2029127.716

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Prothonotary Warbler in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AtchafalayaLOUISIANA522024
KraemerLOUISIANA452024
RamahLOUISIANA412024
BerwickLOUISIANA312018
TallahatchieMISSISSIPPI292024
South BendARKANSAS272023
Tensas NwrLOUISIANA222024
Delta N.F.MISSISSIPPI222021
ShawLOUISIANA202024
FrogmoreLOUISIANA182024
DundeeMISSISSIPPI152022
Crowley'S RidgeARKANSAS132024
HughesARKANSAS112023
FreetownLOUISIANA92019
Morgan CityLOUISIANA81986
MayflowerLOUISIANA82024
GillettARKANSAS72024
CarlisleLOUISIANA71988
Eagle LakeMISSISSIPPI72024
DeventerMISSOURI72023
TippoMISSISSIPPI62024
EnglandARKANSAS52024
KelsoARKANSAS52016
Dahomey NwrMISSISSIPPI52024
AugustaARKANSAS42001

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.