BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prothonotary Warbler In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Prothonotary Warbler in Appalachian Mountains has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-57%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Prothonotary Warbler has fallen sharply in Appalachian Mountains: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Prothonotary Warbler In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±127.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±127.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±127.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.050.000.11
20260.050.000.11
20270.050.000.11
20280.050.000.11
20290.050.000.11

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Prothonotary Warbler in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RiversideALABAMA212013
StevensonALABAMA52024
CartersvilleGEORGIA21979
LinwoodGEORGIA21979
LynchPENNSYLVANIA21999
N WashingtonPENNSYLVANIA21989
Red BankTENNESSEE21977
SaltvilleVIRGINIA21996
MartinsburgWEST-VIRGINIA22023
TradeALABAMA11999
SummittALABAMA11968
Pine GroveALABAMA12024
DearmanvilleALABAMA11980
Sunny EveALABAMA12021
GreensportALABAMA12017
Smyer LakeALABAMA11982
Mt OliveALABAMA11987
MaytownALABAMA12012
GuntersvilleALABAMA12011
ChildersburgALABAMA11999
OdenvilleALABAMA12023
Borden SprngALABAMA11996
WoodvilleALABAMA12013
ChoccoloccoALABAMA12023
OneontaALABAMA12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.