BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Prothonotary Warbler In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Prothonotary Warbler in Prairie Hardwood Transition has risen sharply: up 70% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

+70%Since 1981TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Prothonotary Warbler in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Prothonotary Warbler In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.030.000.05
20270.030.000.05
20280.030.000.05
20290.030.000.05
20300.030.000.05

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Prothonotary Warbler in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HomerMICHIGAN22021
KnoxINDIANA12019
MiddleburyINDIANA12018
LagrangeINDIANA12025
Indiana DuneINDIANA12014
NashvilleMICHIGAN11996
CoopersvilleMICHIGAN12006
BeldingMICHIGAN12002
MontereyMICHIGAN12015
MottvilleMICHIGAN12023
PrattvilleMICHIGAN12011
Belding 2MICHIGAN12006
RochesterMICHIGAN12025
New BuffaloMICHIGAN12001
AlmenaMICHIGAN12013
Caledonia 2MINNESOTA12023
Sherburne NrMINNESOTA11992
Whitewater 2MINNESOTA12018
LimestoneOHIO12007
EsdaileWISCONSIN12025
MatherWISCONSIN12013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.