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Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prothonotary Warbler In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaForest birds

Prothonotary Warbler in Peninsular Florida has fallen sharply: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-50%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Prothonotary Warbler in Peninsular Florida. See the full index history below.

Prothonotary Warbler In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 69% by 2028 — from 0.11 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-69%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 69% by 2028 — from 0.11 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.040.000.14
20250.040.000.14
20260.040.000.14
20270.040.000.13
20280.030.000.13

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Prothonotary Warbler in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pennywash CrFLORIDA31998
DeanvilleFLORIDA21992
Island GroveFLORIDA22023
MicanopyFLORIDA11969
RomeoFLORIDA11988
St AugustineFLORIDA12023
San AntonioFLORIDA12003
BelmoreFLORIDA12023
PinecrestFLORIDA12019
TamiamiFLORIDA11966
Ft MccoyFLORIDA11992
SandyFLORIDA11987
AripekaFLORIDA11995
CroomFLORIDA12004
Green SwampFLORIDA12008

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.