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Species · Mississippi · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Prothonotary Warbler Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesForest birds

Prothonotary Warbler in Mississippi has surged: up 346% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+346%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prothonotary Warbler Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Prothonotary Warbler has surged in Mississippi: up 346% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Prothonotary Warbler Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Mississippi is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 4.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 1.8–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–5.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prothonotary Warbler in Mississippi is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 4.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 1.8–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.51.65.3
20273.51.75.3
20283.51.75.3
20293.61.85.4
20303.61.85.4

Prothonotary Warbler Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Prothonotary Warbler in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tallahatchie2520251996
Delta N.F.2220211995
Dundee1520221970
Corinth1320251975
Eagle Lake1220252012
Tippo920251996
Dahomey Nwr720252011
Grenada Lake620191997
Trace Chickasaw620252012
Fayette520081966
Cockrum520241986
Poplarville519781972
Beverly420111966
Isola420221969
Winterville420112009
Holly Springs420242012
Okatibbee L.420051995
Fort Adams420221975
Lake Mary319901974
Benton320251972
Olive Branch320001977
Duck Hill320251974
Macon320251968
Duffee320011973
Vicksburg Np320212016

Prothonotary Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansasdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamissourinew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.