BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

Prairie Warbler in Missouri has risen sharply: up 58% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+58%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prairie Warbler Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Prairie Warbler has risen sharply in Missouri: up 58% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Prairie Warbler Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.60 (95% range 0.19–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.60Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.19–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Missouri is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.60 (95% range 0.19–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.600.191.0
20260.600.191.0
20270.600.191.0
20280.600.191.0
20290.600.191.0

Prairie Warbler Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Prairie Warbler in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Graniteville720241982
Bennett620241994
Richland520192018
Williamsvill420241994
Moselle320242001
Cassville220191967
Cascade220241970
Clementine220021980
Woodlandville220232017
Hayden220211975
House Springs220232021
Viburnum220242015
Doe Run220242015
Trenton220172017
Mincy220242013
Hilda220241994
Centerville220241994
Bland220242004
Palace220192014
Frankford220081999
Pulaski120101976
Peace Valley120221977
Sweden120241971
Pineville120111980
Ironton119801972

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.