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Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

Prairie Warbler in Missouri has risen sharply: up 59% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+59%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prairie Warbler Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Prairie Warbler has risen sharply in Missouri: up 59% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Prairie Warbler Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Missouri is projected to rise about 88% by 2030 — from 0.31 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.58 (95% range 0.17–0.99). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+88%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.58Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.17–0.9995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Missouri is projected to rise about 88% by 2030 — from 0.31 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.58 (95% range 0.17–0.99). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.580.170.99
20270.580.170.99
20280.580.170.99
20290.580.170.99
20300.580.170.99

Prairie Warbler Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Prairie Warbler in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Richland520192018
Cascade420251970
Williamsvill420241994
Hilda420251994
Bland320252004
Cassville220191967
Clementine220021980
Woodlandville220232017
Hayden220211975
Lincoln220252023
House Springs220232021
Viburnum220242015
Doe Run220242015
Sticklervill220252014
Trenton220172017
Mincy220242013
Bennett220251994
Centerville220241994
Moselle220252001
Palace220192014
Frankford220081999
Pulaski120101976
Peace Valley120221977
Sweden120251971
Pineville120111980

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.