BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Ohio

All statesForest birds

Prairie Warbler in Ohio has declined: down 34% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-34%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prairie Warbler Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Prairie Warbler in Ohio. See the full index history below.

Prairie Warbler Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Ohio is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.90 (95% range 0.36–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.90Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.36–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Ohio is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.90 (95% range 0.36–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.950.411.5
20260.940.401.5
20270.920.391.5
20280.910.381.4
20290.900.361.4

Prairie Warbler Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Prairie Warbler in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rome1920241966
Coal Run919921966
Shawnee S.F. 2820192010
Dresden620241966
Baxter Ridge420111998
Bolins Mills420241966
Scioto Furn420221992
Herner Crns320022002
Troy319811981
Zaleski S.F.220241992
Tick Ridge220191993
Pike S.F.220131992
Birmingham220231988
Cosmos220122012
Newcomerstwn219941980
Wilgus220191992
Harveysburg219921973
Dell220191993
Wayne N.F.120241992
Shawnee S.F.119971992
Tar Hollow120231993
Scioto Trail120051993
Mohican S.F.119981993
Wayland120132013
Strongsville119771977

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaoklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.