BirdAnalyst
Species · South Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in South Carolina

All statesForest birds

Prairie Warbler in South Carolina has declined: down 37% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-37%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prairie Warbler Trends in South CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Prairie Warbler in South Carolina. See the full index history below.

Prairie Warbler Population Forecast in South Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in South Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.9 (95% range 0.48–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-0%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.48–5.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±74.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in South Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.9 (95% range 0.48–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±74.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.90.455.3
20272.90.465.3
20282.90.475.4
20292.90.475.4
20302.90.485.4

Prairie Warbler Survey Routes in South Carolina

Routes recording Prairie Warbler in South Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sandhills1920251994
Coward1520251966
Mount Pisgah1220251998
Pinewood1120171998
Boykin Ml Pd919681966
Greenwood720251998
Bennettsville720141998
Ridgeway620252010
Green Sea520252019
Cauthens Xrd520211982
Salem Xrd420191982
Owings420041992
Plum Branch420251977
Carvers Bay420101998
New Holland320251967
Boiling Spgs319731968
Nixville320252000
Pendleton219761966
Barton Creek220181970
Joanna220251999
Battlecreek220251999
Jamestown120151968
Hardeeville120211967
Rome120011967
Holly Hill120231975

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandtennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.