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Species · South Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in South Carolina

All statesForest birds

Prairie Warbler in South Carolina has declined: down 45% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-45%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prairie Warbler Trends in South CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Prairie Warbler in South Carolina. See the full index history below.

Prairie Warbler Population Forecast in South Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in South Carolina is projected to rise about 42% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 0.45–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±91.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+42%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.45–5.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±91.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in South Carolina is projected to rise about 42% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 0.45–5.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±91.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.90.425.4
20262.90.435.4
20272.90.435.4
20282.90.445.4
20292.90.455.4

Prairie Warbler Survey Routes in South Carolina

Routes recording Prairie Warbler in South Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sandhills2820241994
Pinewood1120171998
Boykin Ml Pd919681966
Ridgeway720212010
Bennettsville720141998
Plum Branch520241977
Battlecreek520141999
Cauthens Xrd520211982
Salem Xrd420191982
Owings420041992
Green Sea420242019
Greenwood420191998
Carvers Bay420101998
Walterboro320171971
Boiling Spgs319731968
Mount Pisgah320211998
Coward220241966
New Holland220241967
Pendleton219761966
Barton Creek220181970
Salem220222010
Joanna220221999
Nixville220172000
Jamestown120151968
Hardeeville120211967

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandtennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.