BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Prairie Warbler in Virginia has fallen sharply: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-62%Since 1968
79Routes In State
58Years

Notable Prairie Warbler Trends in Virginia

long arc declinecomputed index

Prairie Warbler has fallen sharply in Virginia: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Prairie Warbler Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.4 (95% range 0.72–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2029
2.4Projected 2029 index
0.72–4.195% range
±34%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20252.50.864.2
20262.50.834.2
20272.50.794.1
20282.40.764.1
20292.40.724.1

Prairie Warbler Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Prairie Warbler in Virginia.
Truhart2520241996
Ft Pickett S2319951993
Ft Pickett N2119951993
Dismal Swamp1920161992
Branchville1720241966
Mannboro1320241967
Walkers1120231992
Partlow820151977
Carters Brdg 2720242015
Church Road520241966
Clinchport519781974
Carters Brdg420141966
Ringgold420241976
Brodnax420241973
Newsoms420241967
Moran420241996
Newville420241988
Hall320231967
Sharps320241967
Surry320241977
Dryden319991991
David220091969
Natural Brid220181974
Amherst220241967
Concord220241968

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.