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Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Prairie Warbler in Virginia has fallen sharply: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-71%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
79Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prairie Warbler Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Prairie Warbler has fallen sharply in Virginia: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Prairie Warbler Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Virginia is projected to rise about 124% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 0.54–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+124%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.54–3.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Virginia is projected to rise about 124% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 0.54–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.40.694.1
20272.40.654.1
20282.30.614.0
20292.30.584.0
20302.20.543.9

Prairie Warbler Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Prairie Warbler in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Truhart2520241996
Ft Pickett S2319951993
Ft Pickett N2119951993
Dismal Swamp1920161992
Branchville1720241966
Walkers1120231992
Mannboro920251967
Partlow820151977
Moran720251996
Sharps620251967
Clinchport519781974
Brandy Station520252017
Carters Brdg420141966
Church Road420251966
Newsoms420241967
Newville420241988
Brandon420251992
Hall320231967
Surry320241977
Dryden319991991
David220091969
Natural Brid220181974
Amherst220241967
Concord220241968
Quinby220241966

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.