BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Prairie Warbler in Virginia has fallen sharply: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-62%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
79Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prairie Warbler Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Prairie Warbler has fallen sharply in Virginia: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Prairie Warbler Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.4 (95% range 0.72–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.72–4.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.4 (95% range 0.72–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.50.864.2
20262.50.834.2
20272.50.794.1
20282.40.764.1
20292.40.724.1

Prairie Warbler Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Prairie Warbler in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Truhart2520241996
Ft Pickett S2319951993
Ft Pickett N2119951993
Dismal Swamp1920161992
Branchville1720241966
Mannboro1320241967
Walkers1120231992
Partlow820151977
Carters Brdg 2720242015
Church Road520241966
Clinchport519781974
Carters Brdg420141966
Ringgold420241976
Brodnax420241973
Newsoms420241967
Moran420241996
Newville420241988
Hall320231967
Sharps320241967
Surry320241977
Dryden319991991
David220091969
Natural Brid220181974
Amherst220241967
Concord220241968

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.