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Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Florida

All statesForest birds

Prairie Warbler in Florida has collapsed: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-85%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prairie Warbler Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Prairie Warbler has collapsed in Florida: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Prairie Warbler Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Florida is projected to rise about 540% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.78). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±937.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+540%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.34Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±937.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Florida is projected to rise about 540% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.78). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±937.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.340.000.78
20260.340.000.78
20270.340.000.78
20280.340.000.78
20290.340.000.78

Prairie Warbler Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Prairie Warbler in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sugarloaf Key2120041999
Key West1419871987
Key Largo1019911987
Plantation K620041966
Cross City619901988
Sugarloaf Key 2420212005
Card Sound420211998
Covington319871987
Broad Branch220192010
Flamingo220241983
Apalachicola220192007
Sanderson220011971
Hildreth219911991
Deanville219921992
Homestead220152001
Weaver Stn220181987
Oak Grove120151972
Mossy Head120032003
Punta Gorda120141980
Miccosukee119871968
Seminole Hls119981968
Telogia119751968
Steinhatchee119701970
Belmont120021981
Micanopy119731973

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.