BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Prairie Warbler in Texas has risen sharply: up 51% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+51%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prairie Warbler Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Prairie Warbler has risen sharply in Texas: up 51% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Prairie Warbler Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Texas is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-50%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±68.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Texas is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.070.000.14
20260.070.000.14
20270.070.000.14
20280.070.000.14
20290.070.000.14

Prairie Warbler Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Prairie Warbler in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Powell Park 2520242022
Caledonia320241971
Crossroads320161998
Fred320241996
Liberty Hill319771969
Big Sandy Bith220242018
Diboll220241968
Athens219881968
Smyrna 2220232011
Powell Park220211998
Weches220241995
Bon Wier220241996
Mt. Selman220241999
Smyrna220101995
Town Bluff120241974
Livingston120221971
New Waverly119751974
Morton120041970
Chandler119881983
Union Hill120081994
Lydia120171991
Alexander St120181995
Easton120121994

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.