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Species · Louisiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesForest birds

Prairie Warbler in Louisiana has surged: up 235% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+235%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prairie Warbler Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Prairie Warbler has surged in Louisiana: up 235% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Prairie Warbler Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Louisiana is projected to fall about 41% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.36–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-41%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.36–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Louisiana is projected to fall about 41% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.36–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.312.0
20261.20.322.0
20271.20.332.1
20281.20.352.1
20291.20.362.1

Prairie Warbler Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Prairie Warbler in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fort Polk1019701967
Trout1020241988
Flat Creek1020241998
Derry 21020241990
Linville920241998
Clay920241968
Zwolle720231998
Ivan620131998
Hargis620092005
Enterprise620242008
Cheniere620241984
Many519921989
Norwood520242006
Slidell519871984
Ivan 2520162014
Fort Jessup420231998
Evelyn420242005
Mount Union420241998
Womack420241999
Morgan City319761973
Chatham319731967
Longstreet320241967
Marion319961988
Grayson320212005
Hargis 2220142013

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.