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Species · Louisiana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesForest birds

Prairie Warbler in Louisiana has surged: up 244% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+244%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prairie Warbler Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Prairie Warbler has surged in Louisiana: up 244% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Prairie Warbler Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Louisiana is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.41–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.41–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Louisiana is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.41–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.20.362.1
20271.20.372.1
20281.30.392.1
20291.30.402.1
20301.30.412.1

Prairie Warbler Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Prairie Warbler in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Trout1120251988
Flat Creek1120251998
Fort Polk1019701967
Enterprise1020252008
Derry 2920251990
Zwolle720231998
Ivan620131998
Hargis620092005
Many519921989
Slidell519871984
Fort Jessup420231998
Evelyn420242005
Burr Ferry420251989
Cheniere420251984
Morgan City319761973
Chatham319731967
Clay320251968
Marion319961988
Grayson320212005
Norwood320252006
Mount Union320251998
Womack320251999
Ivan 2320252014
Bickham220252006
Hargis 2220142013

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.