BirdAnalyst
Species · Alabama · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Alabama

All statesForest birds

Prairie Warbler in Alabama has edged down: down 19% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-19%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
98Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prairie Warbler Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Prairie Warbler in Alabama. See the full index history below.

Prairie Warbler Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Alabama is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 4.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 1.9–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–5.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Alabama is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 4.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 1.9–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.51.85.3
20273.61.85.3
20283.61.85.3
20293.61.95.3
20303.61.95.3

Prairie Warbler Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Prairie Warbler in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Holt3420251993
Nixburg 22220252000
Liberty City2120111979
Carrollton2120251994
Greensboro1520251966
Borden Sprng1519981993
Blocton1420251969
Borden Springs 21120242001
Cottonton1020251969
Stevenson920242008
Grove Hill820231983
Latham 2820252005
Seale820161996
Drummond820242007
Maytown720251966
Liberty720221966
Nixburg719991995
Pine Grove620251966
Epes620241980
Brooksville620251986
Liberty City 2620252017
Kymulga620252000
Vina620231996
Helicon620251998
Triana620091999

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Other States

arkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.