BirdAnalyst
Species · Alabama · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Alabama

All statesForest birds

Prairie Warbler in Alabama has declined: down 25% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-25%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
98Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prairie Warbler Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Prairie Warbler in Alabama. See the full index history below.

Prairie Warbler Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Alabama is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.5 (95% range 1.8–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–5.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Alabama is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.5 (95% range 1.8–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.41.75.2
20263.51.75.2
20273.51.75.2
20283.51.85.2
20293.51.85.2

Prairie Warbler Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Prairie Warbler in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Holt2920241993
Liberty City2120111979
Borden Sprng1519981993
Greensboro1320241966
Nixburg 21320242000
Blocton1120241969
Borden Springs 21120242001
Latham 21020242005
Maytown920231966
Cottonton920241969
Stevenson920242008
Grove Hill820231983
Seale820161996
Drummond820242007
Liberty720221966
Wedgeworth720241984
Nixburg719991995
Pine Grove620241966
Mt Olive620241966
Epes620241980
Liberty City 2620242017
Kymulga620222000
Vina620231996
Triana620091999
Riderwood520231966

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Other States

arkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.