BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Prairie Warbler in New York has surged: up 90% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+90%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prairie Warbler Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Prairie Warbler has surged in New York: up 90% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Prairie Warbler Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in New York is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 0.46 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.20–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.36Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.20–0.5295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±51.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in New York is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 0.46 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.20–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.350.190.51
20260.350.190.51
20270.350.200.51
20280.360.200.51
20290.360.200.52

Prairie Warbler Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Prairie Warbler in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Duanesburg819871983
Oxford 2520241984
S Berne 2520242014
Rhinebeck320241967
Catskills320151971
Medusa320241974
Whitney Pt320031990
Phillips Cr320241993
Bedford219961968
Warwick219741973
Westbrookvle220191970
Swain 2220242014
Cobleskill220231986
S Berne220131976
Platte Cove220171970
Branchport220241995
Canadice L220062006
Centerville220152002
Westhampton119981967
Manorville120051966
Hauppauge119681968
Highland119921969
Middletown119901967
Rifton119861981
W Shokan120021968

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.