BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Prairie Warbler in New York has risen sharply: up 68% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+68%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prairie Warbler Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Prairie Warbler has risen sharply in New York: up 68% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Prairie Warbler Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in New York is projected to rise about 165% by 2030 — from 0.13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.18–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+165%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.34Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.18–0.5195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in New York is projected to rise about 165% by 2030 — from 0.13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.18–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.340.170.50
20270.340.170.50
20280.340.180.50
20290.340.180.51
20300.340.180.51

Prairie Warbler Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Prairie Warbler in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Duanesburg819871983
Oxford 2520241984
S Berne 2520242014
Catskills320151971
Medusa320241974
Whitney Pt320031990
Phillips Cr320241993
Bedford219961968
Warwick219741973
Westbrookvle220191970
Cobleskill220231986
S Berne220131976
Platte Cove220171970
Branchport220241995
Canadice L220062006
Mt Morris220251995
Centerville220152002
Westhampton119981967
Manorville120051966
Hauppauge119681968
Rhinebeck120251967
Highland119921969
Middletown119901967
Rifton119861981
W Shokan120021968

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.