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Species · Tennessee · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesForest birds

Prairie Warbler in Tennessee has declined: down 30% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-30%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prairie Warbler Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Prairie Warbler in Tennessee. See the full index history below.

Prairie Warbler Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Tennessee is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.68–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.68–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Tennessee is projected to fall about 25% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.68–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.80.732.9
20271.80.722.9
20281.80.712.9
20291.80.692.8
20301.80.682.8

Prairie Warbler Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Prairie Warbler in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Big Sandy1520251966
Sweetlips920231971
Collinwood920251966
Indian Mound 2920232004
Lewis Forest720251966
Jones Gap520191982
Mansfield520251966
Tullahoma520151967
Silerton420241975
Trace Collinwood420182018
Trenton320211966
Pond Creek320251966
Campbellsville320171966
Peytonsville320241967
Mecca320231994
Cades Cove320252019
Signal Mtn220231979
Humboldt220091975
Oliver Spgs220221966
Willis Sprng220231994
Tellico220251995
Cornpone220241990
Trace Lewis220172013
Tiptonville120211969
Moscow120241986

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.