BirdAnalyst
Species · Indiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Indiana

All statesForest birds

Prairie Warbler in Indiana has edged down: down 14% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-14%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prairie Warbler Trends in IndianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Prairie Warbler in Indiana. See the full index history below.

Prairie Warbler Population Forecast in Indiana

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Indiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.63 (95% range 0.26–0.99). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+1%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.63Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.26–0.9995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Indiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.63 (95% range 0.26–0.99). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.630.260.99
20260.630.260.99
20270.630.260.99
20280.630.260.99
20290.630.260.99

Prairie Warbler Survey Routes in Indiana

Routes recording Prairie Warbler in Indiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Georgia720241999
Corydon620241966
New Phila520241982
Indian Spgs420241982
Pimento320221994
Belmont220241982
Celestine220241979
Clear Spring220231981
Vevay220241966
Cross Plains220241999
Knox119891989
Hoosier120241990
Indiana Dune120121995
Ellis119821982
Middletown119881988
Swayzee120212021
Wabash120192019
Spencer120241989
Azalia120221982
Milroy119901972
Brookville120241980
Cumback120001969
Millersburg120081997
Scottsburg120211982
Evansville120011966

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoiskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.