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Species · Mississippi · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesForest birds

Prairie Warbler in Mississippi has surged: up 551% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+551%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prairie Warbler Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Prairie Warbler has surged in Mississippi: up 551% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Prairie Warbler Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Mississippi is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 0.99–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.99–3.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Mississippi is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 0.99–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.10.913.3
20262.10.933.4
20272.20.953.4
20282.20.973.4
20292.20.993.4

Prairie Warbler Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Prairie Warbler in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Diberville2719871979
Fontainbleau1219781968
Corinth1120241972
Monticello1020162007
De Soto1020192008
Latimer 2920232021
Grenada Lake820191997
Scooba719821972
Holly Springs720242010
Latimer620191988
Duck Hill520242004
Water Valley520182015
Neely420122000
Benndale420211974
Embry420241988
Beverly320091967
Sandy Creek320001993
Lake Como320082008
Fayette320081971
Forest320242016
Poplarville319721972
Trace Attala320162016
Weir320232007
Waynesboro220091979
Leaf River220132008

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.