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Species · Kentucky · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesForest birds

Prairie Warbler in Kentucky has edged up: up 15% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+15%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prairie Warbler Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Prairie Warbler in Kentucky. See the full index history below.

Prairie Warbler Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Kentucky is projected to rise about 79% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 1.8–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+79%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–4.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Kentucky is projected to rise about 79% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 1.8–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.21.74.7
20273.21.74.7
20283.21.74.7
20293.21.74.7
20303.31.84.8

Prairie Warbler Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Prairie Warbler in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pine Ridge2819781966
Staffordsvil2219971996
Monticello1820221968
Beattyville 21420242006
Dixon1320222005
Gesling1319731967
Paintsville1319951979
Johnsonville820211967
Hegira720241988
Joy720231990
Hodgenville 2720232008
Riverqueen620252007
Mckee620251969
Glencoe620221966
Porter620251966
Apex520252005
Mammoth Cave520141995
Campton520211979
Sulphur Lick420231978
Pippa Passes419881988
Beattyville419921966
Kehoe419921966
Lebanon Junction420252000
Hustonville320251966
Hudson320251966

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianalouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.