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Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesForest birds

Prairie Warbler in Kentucky has risen sharply: up 54% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+54%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prairie Warbler Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Prairie Warbler has risen sharply in Kentucky: up 54% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Prairie Warbler Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Kentucky is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 2.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 1.9–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–4.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Kentucky is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 2.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 1.9–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.31.84.8
20263.31.94.8
20273.31.94.8
20283.31.94.8
20293.41.94.8

Prairie Warbler Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Prairie Warbler in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pine Ridge2819781966
Staffordsvil2219971996
Lebanon Junction2020242000
Monticello1820221968
Beattyville 21420242006
Dixon1320222005
Gesling1319731967
Paintsville1319951979
Apex920242005
Johnsonville820211967
Hegira720241988
Joy720231990
Hodgenville 2720232008
Glencoe620221966
Porter620241966
East Union520221966
Mammoth Cave520141995
Carter520241976
Campton520211979
Sulphur Lick420231978
Pippa Passes419881988
Beattyville419921966
Kehoe419921966
Hudson320241966
Drakesboro319931966

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianalouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.