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Species · Georgia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Georgia

All statesForest birds

Prairie Warbler in Georgia has fallen sharply: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-71%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prairie Warbler Trends in GeorgiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Prairie Warbler has fallen sharply in Georgia: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Prairie Warbler Population Forecast in Georgia

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Georgia is projected to fall about 35% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.98 (95% range 0.00–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.98Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Georgia is projected to fall about 35% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.98 (95% range 0.00–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.002.8
20271.10.002.8
20281.00.002.8
20291.00.002.7
20300.980.002.7

Prairie Warbler Survey Routes in Georgia

Routes recording Prairie Warbler in Georgia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Piedmont Nwr1520031991
Carrs Station1320252008
Lincolnton1120171966
Fairplay1119911966
Glenmore1120252013
Yates Crossroads1120252005
Metasville1020001997
Minter Tweed820252006
Maxeys720241966
Lacross720171976
Linwood720231970
Deepstep720231975
Stoney Point720072007
Amos Mill720222011
Courthouse620251966
Wrightsville620251966
Harrietts Bl520151970
Bowdon520251973
Barges420252011
Irwinton420252016
Sharon420222018
Forsyth320241966
Cotton320192006
Rutledge320251975
Juliette320251975

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.