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Species · Georgia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Georgia

All statesForest birds

Prairie Warbler in Georgia has fallen sharply: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-73%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prairie Warbler Trends in GeorgiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Prairie Warbler has fallen sharply in Georgia: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Prairie Warbler Population Forecast in Georgia

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Georgia is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.98 (95% range 0.00–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.98Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Georgia is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.98 (95% range 0.00–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.002.8
20261.10.002.8
20271.00.002.8
20281.00.002.8
20290.980.002.7

Prairie Warbler Survey Routes in Georgia

Routes recording Prairie Warbler in Georgia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Piedmont Nwr1520031991
Lincolnton1120171966
Fairplay1119911966
Metasville1020001997
Yates Crossroads920242005
Maxeys720241966
Lacross720171976
Linwood720231970
Deepstep720231975
Glenmore720242013
Stoney Point720072007
Amos Mill720222011
Carrs Station620242008
Harrietts Bl520151970
Washington520241975
Wrightsville420241966
Lincolnton 2420242018
Irwinton420242016
Sharon420222018
Courthouse320241966
Forsyth320241966
Cotton320192006
Bowdon320241973
Juliette320241975
Riceboro320231996

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.