Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Prairie Warbler Population Trend in North Carolina
Prairie Warbler in North Carolina has fallen sharply: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
-53%Since 1968
95Routes In State
58Years
Notable Prairie Warbler Trends in North Carolina
long arc declinecomputed index
Prairie Warbler has fallen sharply in North Carolina: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
Prairie Warbler Population Forecast in North Carolina
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in North Carolina is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 0.23–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±87.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
+27%Change by 2029
3.2Projected 2029 index
0.23–6.195% range
±87.3%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.3 | 0.36 | 6.3 |
| 2026 | 3.3 | 0.33 | 6.2 |
| 2027 | 3.3 | 0.30 | 6.2 |
| 2028 | 3.2 | 0.26 | 6.2 |
| 2029 | 3.2 | 0.23 | 6.1 |
Prairie Warbler Survey Routes in North Carolina
| Mashoes | 66 | 1982 | 1971 |
| Green Swamp | 56 | 2006 | 2002 |
| Chowan River | 54 | 2006 | 2002 |
| Milltail Cr | 28 | 2024 | 1992 |
| Washington | 26 | 2024 | 2001 |
| California | 17 | 2013 | 1972 |
| Jackson | 13 | 2017 | 1995 |
| Spring Hope | 12 | 2024 | 2002 |
| Gupton | 11 | 2024 | 2001 |
| Rheasville | 11 | 2017 | 2005 |
| Arapahoe | 9 | 1995 | 1966 |
| Arcola | 9 | 2024 | 1971 |
| Youngsville | 9 | 2024 | 1966 |
| Dismal Swamp | 9 | 2024 | 1993 |
| California 2 | 8 | 2024 | 2014 |
| Shallotte | 7 | 1991 | 1969 |
| Cherryville | 7 | 1968 | 1968 |
| South. Pines | 7 | 1996 | 1995 |
| Rhems | 6 | 1993 | 1990 |
| Lloyd Xroads | 6 | 2024 | 1990 |
| Ernul | 6 | 2009 | 2001 |
| Uwharrie Nf | 6 | 2001 | 1993 |
| Beargrass | 5 | 1981 | 1967 |
| Supply | 5 | 2024 | 1992 |
| Maple Hill | 5 | 2023 | 1995 |
Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.