BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Prairie Warbler in North Carolina has declined: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-50%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prairie Warbler Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Prairie Warbler in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

Prairie Warbler Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in North Carolina is projected to rise about 23% by 2030 — from 2.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 0.15–6.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.15–6.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±80.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in North Carolina is projected to rise about 23% by 2030 — from 2.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 0.15–6.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.20.296.2
20273.20.256.1
20283.20.226.1
20293.10.186.1
20303.10.156.0

Prairie Warbler Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Prairie Warbler in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mashoes6619821971
Green Swamp5620062002
Chowan River5420062002
Milltail Cr3720251992
Washington2820252001
California1720131972
Jackson1320171995
Rheasville1120172005
Jamesville1020251983
Arapahoe919951966
California 2920252014
Gupton920252001
Dismal Swamp920241993
Shallotte719911969
Cherryville719681968
South. Pines719961995
Spring Hope720252002
Youngsville620251966
Supply620251992
Rhems619931990
Lloyd Xroads620241990
Osmond620252001
Ernul620092001
Uwharrie Nf620011993
Beargrass519811967

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorkohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.