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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesForest birds

Prairie Warbler in North Carolina has fallen sharply: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-53%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prairie Warbler Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Prairie Warbler has fallen sharply in North Carolina: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Prairie Warbler Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in North Carolina is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 0.23–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±87.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.23–6.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±87.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in North Carolina is projected to rise about 27% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 0.23–6.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±87.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.30.366.3
20263.30.336.2
20273.30.306.2
20283.20.266.2
20293.20.236.1

Prairie Warbler Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Prairie Warbler in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mashoes6619821971
Green Swamp5620062002
Chowan River5420062002
Milltail Cr2820241992
Washington2620242001
California1720131972
Jackson1320171995
Spring Hope1220242002
Gupton1120242001
Rheasville1120172005
Arapahoe919951966
Arcola920241971
Youngsville920241966
Dismal Swamp920241993
California 2820242014
Shallotte719911969
Cherryville719681968
South. Pines719961995
Rhems619931990
Lloyd Xroads620241990
Ernul620092001
Uwharrie Nf620011993
Beargrass519811967
Supply520241992
Maple Hill520231995

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorkohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.