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Species · Connecticut · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Connecticut

All statesForest birds

Prairie Warbler in Connecticut has fallen sharply: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-69%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Prairie Warbler Trends in ConnecticutNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Prairie Warbler has fallen sharply in Connecticut: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Prairie Warbler Population Forecast in Connecticut

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Connecticut is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.50 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±131.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±131.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Connecticut is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 0.50 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±131.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.001.3
20270.000.001.3
20280.000.001.3
20290.000.001.3
20300.000.001.3

Prairie Warbler Survey Routes in Connecticut

Routes recording Prairie Warbler in Connecticut.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Woodstock219961969
No Woodbury219821967
Mid Haddam220251973
Granby220251989
Mystic120141973
E Hartland119901967
Buckingham120151966
Uncasville120231973
Westbrook119941977
Willimantic120181968
Sherman120181977
Greenwich119921977
Danbury119891988
Warren119831973
Long Hill120191972
Southington119941973
New Hartford119871972
New Hartford120161997
Woodstock 2120222022

Prairie Warbler Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniadelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourinew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.