Prairie Warbler
Prairie Warbler has fallen sharply: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
About the Prairie Warbler
The Prairie Warbler (Setophaga discolor) is a North American member of the Wood-Warblers (Parulidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.
- Size
- 4.5–5.5 in long (11–14 cm) — a small, active songbird (typical for the family)
- Habitat
- Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
- Diet
- Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
- Range
- Recorded on 1,320 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 32 states, most concentrated in the Appalachian Mountains.
- Family
- Parulidae · Forest birds
Notable Prairie Warbler Trends
Prairie Warbler has fallen sharply in surveyed states: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
Prairie Warbler Population Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 0.55 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.45 (95% range 0.07–0.83). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.48 | 0.10 | 0.86 |
| 2026 | 0.47 | 0.09 | 0.85 |
| 2027 | 0.47 | 0.08 | 0.85 |
| 2028 | 0.46 | 0.08 | 0.84 |
| 2029 | 0.45 | 0.07 | 0.83 |
Where the Prairie Warbler Is Detected
BBS routes recording Prairie Warbler, sized by most recent count.
Prairie Warbler Population Trend by State
| Alabama | -25% | 1968 | 98 |
| Arkansas | -31% | 1969 | 43 |
| California | insufficient data | n/a | 1 |
| Connecticut | -73% | 1968 | 19 |
| Delaware | -63% | 1968 | 15 |
| Florida | -85% | 1968 | 41 |
| Georgia | -73% | 1968 | 95 |
| Illinois | +194% | 1973 | 22 |
| Indiana | -14% | 1968 | 29 |
| Kentucky | +54% | 1968 | 62 |
| Louisiana | +235% | 1969 | 51 |
| Maine | +196% | 1978 | 16 |
| Maryland | -64% | 1968 | 71 |
| Massachusetts | -70% | 1968 | 27 |
| Michigan | insufficient data | n/a | 7 |
| Mississippi | +551% | 1968 | 50 |
| Missouri | +58% | 1969 | 51 |
| New Hampshire | +201% | 1968 | 14 |
| New Jersey | -58% | 1968 | 34 |
| New York | +90% | 1968 | 55 |
| North Carolina | -53% | 1968 | 95 |
| Ohio | -34% | 1968 | 48 |
| Oklahoma | +276% | 1969 | 17 |
| Pennsylvania | -14% | 1968 | 89 |
| Rhode Island | -62% | 1968 | 6 |
| South Carolina | -45% | 1968 | 46 |
| Tennessee | -28% | 1968 | 51 |
| Texas | +51% | 1970 | 23 |
| Vermont | -7% | 1976 | 9 |
| Virginia | -62% | 1968 | 79 |
| West Virginia | -95% | 1968 | 54 |
| Wisconsin | insufficient data | n/a | 2 |
Prairie Warbler Population Trend by Region
Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.
| Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain | +62% | 1969 | 25 |
| Atlantic Northern Forest | +449% | 1968 | 43 |
| Eastern Tallgrass Prairie | +287% | 1970 | 45 |
| Prairie Hardwood Transition | +9% | 1981 | 9 |
| Central Hardwoods | -33% | 1968 | 151 |
| West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas | +95% | 1969 | 99 |
| Mississippi Alluvial Valley | -49% | 1971 | 10 |
| Southeastern Coastal Plain | +8% | 1968 | 289 |
| Appalachian Mountains | -73% | 1968 | 321 |
| Piedmont | -59% | 1968 | 155 |
| New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast | -43% | 1968 | 144 |
| Peninsular Florida | -64% | 1968 | 19 |
Prairie Warbler Conservation Status
Our route-weighted index shows it down about 62% since 1968.
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.