BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Prairie Warbler Population Analysis

ParulidaeForest birdsSetophaga discolor

Prairie Warbler has fallen sharply: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-64%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1,321RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Prairie Warbler

The Prairie Warbler (Setophaga discolor) is a North American member of the Wood-Warblers (Parulidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
4.5–5.5 in long (11–14 cm) — a small, active songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 1,321 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 32 states, most concentrated in the Appalachian Mountains.
Family
Parulidae · Forest birds

Notable Prairie Warbler TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Prairie Warbler has fallen sharply in surveyed states: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Prairie Warbler Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 0.50 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.44 (95% range 0.07–0.82). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.44Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.07–0.8295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 0.50 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.44 (95% range 0.07–0.82). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.470.100.85
20270.470.090.84
20280.460.080.84
20290.450.070.83
20300.440.070.82

Where the Prairie Warbler Is Detected

BBS routes recording Prairie Warbler, sized by most recent count.

Prairie Warbler Population Trend by State

Prairie Warbler population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabama-19%196898
Arkansas-24%196943
Californiainsufficient datan/a1
Connecticut-69%196819
Delaware-63%196815
Florida-89%196841
Georgia-71%196895
Illinois+206%197322
Indiana-6%196829
Kentucky+15%196862
Louisiana+244%196951
Maine+214%197816
Maryland-71%196871
Massachusetts-73%196827
Michiganinsufficient datan/a7
Mississippi+582%196850
Missouri+59%196951
New Hampshire+152%196815
New Jersey-50%196834
New York+68%196855
North Carolina-50%196895
Ohio-39%196848
Oklahoma+196%196917
Pennsylvania-13%196889
Rhode Island-73%19686
South Carolina-37%196846
Tennessee-30%196851
Texas+63%197023
Vermont-6%19769
Virginia-71%196879
West Virginia-94%196854
Wisconsininsufficient datan/a2

Prairie Warbler Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Prairie Warbler population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain+47%196925
Atlantic Northern Forest+460%196844
Eastern Tallgrass Prairie+293%197045
Prairie Hardwood Transition+9%19819
Central Hardwoods-41%1968151
West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas+80%196999
Mississippi Alluvial Valley-49%197110
Southeastern Coastal Plain+17%1968289
Appalachian Mountains-75%1968321
Piedmont-59%1968155
New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast-49%1968144
Peninsular Florida-83%196819

Prairie Warbler Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it down about 64% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.