BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prairie Warbler In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieForest birds

Prairie Warbler in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 287% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+287%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Prairie Warbler in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 48% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.01–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±116.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-48%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.0695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±116.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 48% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.01–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±116.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.010.06
20260.030.010.06
20270.030.010.06
20280.030.010.06
20290.030.010.06

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Prairie Warbler in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BelleviewILLINOIS42024
RobinsonILLINOIS32022
MoselleMISSOURI32024
TroyOHIO31981
Camp PointILLINOIS21997
TrentonMISSOURI22017
FrankfordMISSOURI22008
House SpringsMISSOURI22023
CosmosOHIO22012
HarveysburgOHIO21992
DaileyILLINOIS12000
MilfordILLINOIS11992
ClarksdaleILLINOIS12023
Mt VernonILLINOIS12014
NilwoodILLINOIS12001
EubanksILLINOIS12024
MiddletownINDIANA11988
SwayzeeINDIANA12021
WabashINDIANA12019
MilroyINDIANA11990
BrookvilleINDIANA12024
WallaceINDIANA12021
New CastleINDIANA12018
FilleyMISSOURI12024
DanvilleMISSOURI12014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.