BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prairie Warbler In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Prairie Warbler in Appalachian Mountains has fallen sharply: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-73%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
321Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Prairie Warbler has fallen sharply in Appalachian Mountains: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 0.62 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.43 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.43Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 0.62 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.43 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.520.001.2
20260.500.001.1
20270.480.001.1
20280.460.001.1
20290.430.001.1

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Prairie Warbler in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pine RidgeKENTUCKY281978
StaffordsvilKENTUCKY221997
MonticelloKENTUCKY182022
Borden SprngALABAMA151998
Beattyville 2KENTUCKY142024
GeslingKENTUCKY131973
PaintsvilleKENTUCKY131995
Borden Springs 2ALABAMA112024
MaytownALABAMA92023
StevensonALABAMA92024
Coal RunOHIO91992
DrummondALABAMA82024
Shawnee S.F. 2OHIO82019
LinwoodGEORGIA72023
Amos MillGEORGIA72022
TellicoTENNESSEE72023
HanoverWEST-VIRGINIA71995
Pine GroveALABAMA62024
Mt OliveALABAMA62024
KymulgaALABAMA62022
DresdenOHIO62024
CamptonKENTUCKY52021
CarterKENTUCKY52024
OldtownMARYLAND52024
S Berne 2NEW-YORK52024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.