BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prairie Warbler In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaForest birds

Prairie Warbler in Peninsular Florida has fallen sharply: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-64%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Prairie Warbler has fallen sharply in Peninsular Florida: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Prairie Warbler In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 581% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.54 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±689.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+581%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.54Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±689.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 581% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.54 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±689.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.530.001.2
20260.530.001.2
20270.540.001.2
20280.540.001.2
20290.540.001.2

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Prairie Warbler in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sugarloaf KeyFLORIDA212004
Key WestFLORIDA141987
Key LargoFLORIDA101991
Plantation KFLORIDA62004
Card SoundFLORIDA42021
Sugarloaf Key 2FLORIDA42021
DeanvilleFLORIDA21992
HomesteadFLORIDA22015
Weaver StnFLORIDA22018
FlamingoFLORIDA22024
MicanopyFLORIDA11973
ScottsmoorFLORIDA12001
Ft LonesomeFLORIDA11970
KenansvilleFLORIDA11983
Ft MccoyFLORIDA12005
Pennywash CrFLORIDA12004
Punta GordaFLORIDA12014
GoetheFLORIDA12024
CorbettFLORIDA11997

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.