BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prairie Warbler In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaForest birds

Prairie Warbler in Peninsular Florida has fallen sharply: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-64%Since 1968
19Routes In Region
56Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Prairie Warbler has fallen sharply in Peninsular Florida: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 581% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.54 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±689.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+581%Change by 2029
0.54Projected 2029 index
0.00–1.295% range
±689.5%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.530.001.2
20260.530.001.2
20270.540.001.2
20280.540.001.2
20290.540.001.2

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Prairie Warbler in Peninsular Florida.
Sugarloaf KeyFLORIDA212004
Key WestFLORIDA141987
Key LargoFLORIDA101991
Plantation KFLORIDA62004
Card SoundFLORIDA42021
Sugarloaf Key 2FLORIDA42021
DeanvilleFLORIDA21992
HomesteadFLORIDA22015
Weaver StnFLORIDA22018
FlamingoFLORIDA22024
MicanopyFLORIDA11973
ScottsmoorFLORIDA12001
Ft LonesomeFLORIDA11970
KenansvilleFLORIDA11983
Ft MccoyFLORIDA12005
Pennywash CrFLORIDA12004
Punta GordaFLORIDA12014
GoetheFLORIDA12024
CorbettFLORIDA11997

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.