BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prairie Warbler In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastForest birds

Prairie Warbler in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has declined: down 43% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-43%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
144Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Prairie Warbler in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.01–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.01–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.30.132.5
20261.30.102.5
20271.20.072.4
20281.20.042.4
20291.20.012.4

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Prairie Warbler in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TruhartVIRGINIA252024
Spraguetown 3NEW-JERSEY192024
Toms RiverNEW-JERSEY122024
Bennett MillNEW-JERSEY112000
WalkersVIRGINIA112023
FriendshipNEW-JERSEY102024
CokesburyMARYLAND82024
PomonaNEW-JERSEY82024
BelchertownMASSACHUSETTS62024
HolleyvilleDELAWARE52004
Lowes XrdsDELAWARE51987
CheltenhamMARYLAND52003
WalnutMARYLAND52024
PepperboxDELAWARE42016
Pt RepublicMARYLAND41989
Wellfleet 2MASSACHUSETTS42024
Ware RiverMASSACHUSETTS42022
Estell ManorNEW-JERSEY42022
PomonkeyMARYLAND32024
HarmonyMARYLAND31974
Snow HillMARYLAND31974
Furnace TownMARYLAND32022
ChilmarkMASSACHUSETTS31983
EpsomNEW-HAMPSHIRE32022
AncoraNEW-JERSEY31977

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.