BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Prairie Warbler In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Prairie Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has increased: up 47% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+47%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Prairie Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

Prairie Warbler In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 75% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.03–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+75%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±84.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 75% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.03–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.180.030.34
20270.180.030.34
20280.180.030.34
20290.180.030.34
20300.180.030.34

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Prairie Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DuanesburgNEW-YORK81987
CatskillsNEW-YORK32015
Herner CrnsOHIO32002
BranchportNEW-YORK22024
Canadice LNEW-YORK22006
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK22025
RhinebeckNEW-YORK12025
HighlandNEW-YORK11992
W ShokanNEW-YORK12002
AusterlitzNEW-YORK12025
GhentNEW-YORK12023
HamburgNEW-YORK11978
ClintonNEW-YORK12008
SalemNEW-YORK12023
ArgyleNEW-YORK12021
HopkintonNEW-YORK12008
WaylandOHIO12013
StrongsvilleOHIO11977
HebronOHIO12023
CloverPENNSYLVANIA11995
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA11989
TeeplevillePENNSYLVANIA11994
North PownalVERMONT12025
ShaftsburyVERMONT11999
HinesburgVERMONT11980

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.