BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prairie Warbler In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Prairie Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has risen sharply: up 62% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+62%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Prairie Warbler has risen sharply in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 62% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Prairie Warbler In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 54% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.04–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+54%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.19Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.3595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±89.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 54% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.04–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.190.040.34
20260.190.040.34
20270.190.040.34
20280.190.040.34
20290.190.040.35

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Prairie Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DuanesburgNEW-YORK81987
RhinebeckNEW-YORK32024
CatskillsNEW-YORK32015
Herner CrnsOHIO32002
BranchportNEW-YORK22024
Canadice LNEW-YORK22006
HighlandNEW-YORK11992
W ShokanNEW-YORK12002
AusterlitzNEW-YORK12023
GhentNEW-YORK12023
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK12024
HamburgNEW-YORK11978
ClintonNEW-YORK12008
SalemNEW-YORK12023
ArgyleNEW-YORK12021
HopkintonNEW-YORK12008
WaylandOHIO12013
StrongsvilleOHIO11977
HebronOHIO12023
CloverPENNSYLVANIA11995
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA11989
TeeplevillePENNSYLVANIA11994
North PownalVERMONT12017
ShaftsburyVERMONT11999
HinesburgVERMONT11980

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.