BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Prairie Warbler In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainForest birds

Prairie Warbler in Southeastern Coastal Plain has edged up: up 17% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+17%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
289Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Prairie Warbler in Southeastern Coastal Plain. See the full index history below.

Prairie Warbler In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 1.8–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 2.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 1.8–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.91.84.0
20272.91.84.0
20282.91.84.0
20292.91.84.0
20302.91.84.0

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Prairie Warbler in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MashoesNORTH-CAROLINA661982
Green SwampNORTH-CAROLINA562006
Chowan RiverNORTH-CAROLINA542006
Milltail CrNORTH-CAROLINA372025
HoltALABAMA342025
WashingtonNORTH-CAROLINA282025
DibervilleMISSISSIPPI271987
CarrolltonALABAMA212025
SandhillsSOUTH-CAROLINA192025
Dismal SwampVIRGINIA192016
CaliforniaNORTH-CAROLINA172013
BranchvilleVIRGINIA172024
CorinthMISSISSIPPI162025
GreensboroALABAMA152025
CowardSOUTH-CAROLINA152025
Big SandyTENNESSEE152025
BloctonALABAMA142025
JacksonNORTH-CAROLINA132017
FontainbleauMISSISSIPPI121978
Mount PisgahSOUTH-CAROLINA122025
GlenmoreGEORGIA112025
RheasvilleNORTH-CAROLINA112017
PinewoodSOUTH-CAROLINA112017
CottontonALABAMA102025
MonticelloMISSISSIPPI102016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.