BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Prairie Warbler In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainForest birds

Prairie Warbler in Southeastern Coastal Plain has held roughly steady: up 8% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+8%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
289Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Prairie Warbler in Southeastern Coastal Plain. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 1.8–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Prairie Warbler in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 1.8–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.4%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.91.74.0
20262.91.84.0
20272.91.84.0
20282.91.84.0
20292.91.84.0

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Prairie Warbler in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MashoesNORTH-CAROLINA661982
Green SwampNORTH-CAROLINA562006
Chowan RiverNORTH-CAROLINA542006
HoltALABAMA292024
Milltail CrNORTH-CAROLINA282024
SandhillsSOUTH-CAROLINA282024
DibervilleMISSISSIPPI271987
WashingtonNORTH-CAROLINA262024
Dismal SwampVIRGINIA192016
CaliforniaNORTH-CAROLINA172013
BranchvilleVIRGINIA172024
GreensboroALABAMA132024
JacksonNORTH-CAROLINA132017
FontainbleauMISSISSIPPI121978
Spring HopeNORTH-CAROLINA122024
Big SandyTENNESSEE122024
BloctonALABAMA112024
CorinthMISSISSIPPI112024
RheasvilleNORTH-CAROLINA112017
PinewoodSOUTH-CAROLINA112017
Latham 2ALABAMA102024
MonticelloMISSISSIPPI102016
De SotoMISSISSIPPI102019
CottontonALABAMA92024
Latimer 2MISSISSIPPI92023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.